Someone may argue that it is still too early to predict the outcome of the DV 2022 program. Such reservation is somewhat justified when you consider that the unexpected could happen at any time as was the case with DV 2020 and DV 2021. But until the unexpected reoccurs, the truth remains that the most recent selectees of the DV Program stand a better chance than those of the two preceding DV programs.
There are several reasons why DV 2022 selectees have a better chance than selectees of the 2020 and 2021 programs.
1. Selectees expected to be fewer
Although the total number of selectees for the 2022 Program is yet to be released, experience shows that whenever there’s an overly-selected year (like last year), the following generally has fewer selectees. Going by that assertion, we expect the total number of selectees for the 2022 program to be less than what it was last year.
2. A Different U S Administration
The 2020 and 2021 Diversity Visa programs were partly or entirely administered under the previous U S Administration which was largely regarded as anti-immigration.
The 2022 Program, for its part, is being conducted under a new president who hasn’t simply been portrayed as pro-immigration, but who has taken concrete steps to ensure that immigration laws are upheld.
3. Decline in COVID-19 infection in the United States
A surge in the incidence of COVID-19 cases in the country adversely affects life in general, including the Diversity Visa program, as was the case especially with the 2020 program.
With the current vaccination campaign and the increase in voluntary participation, negative impacts of the pandemic on the DV program (a ban on immigration, for example) are unlikely in the foreseeable future.
There are other COVID-19 consequences which will be curtailed with the improvement in the situation of the pandemic in the U S. For example:
4. The DV 2022 program to begin ‘on time’
Interviews for the Diversity Visa program are normally conducted throughout the fiscal year; from October 1 to September 30 the following year, which was not the case with the DV 2021 Program. Due to the ban on immigration put in place by the former U S president, DV 2021 did not kick off until March this year. In the absence of a ban on immigration, DV 2022 interviews are scheduled to begin in October.
5. Reopening of embassies.
As we get closer to the start of the 2022 fiscal year, and in accordance with the State Department’s phased resumption of visa services at U S foreign posts, more and more embassies and consulates will resume normal visa services, as has not been the case so far. The more embassies and consulates that reopen, the higher the volume of interviews to be conducted.
6. Fewer safety measures, more work done at KCC
As I mentioned in this post, KCC are actually overwhelmed by the workload on hand. Cases which should have been processed and done away with are still at the Center because firstly, there are so many cases to handle, owing to the suspension of operations as a result of the ban on immigration; but also because of COVID-19 safety measures put in place. With improvement in the situation of COVID-19 nationwide, safety measures will be relaxed thereby increasing staff numbers and reducing delays at the Center.
7. KCC current document processing nightmare to end soon
The September 30 deadline for DV 2021 program will mark the end of the current document processing crisis. After said date, the ‘stockpile’ of documents, which has plagued KCC for many months, will be done away with, allowing staff to focus on 2022 cases.
To conclude, we can say that it is true that calamity could strike at any time, leaving the DV enthusiasts vulnerable as has been the case in the two most recent years. But the experience of one group of persons does not necessarily determine the fate of others. Meaning, all things being constant, DV 2022 selectees will have a much better program experience in their quest for the American dream than their counterparts of the 2020 and 2021 programs.