Low and High Case Numbers
VERY IMPORTANT
A MUST-READ FOR DV 2024 (and now DV 2025) APPLICANTS:
I wish to clarify that this article was written in 2022, and that the ‘norms’ presented in it were derived at after interpolation of case number data from DV programs before DV 2024. As such, the contents of the article do not apply in the case of the DV 2024 Program, and may not in subsequent DV Programs.
For the DV 2024 Program, I have provided more explanation in this article.
AND FOR DV 2025: It is still too early to draw conclusions on the prospects of case numbers as there isn’t sufficient data to allow that for the time being.
When the prospects of DV 2025 case numbers become clearer, I shall publish an article addressing the issue – as I did for DV 2024. Look out for that article!
(This article however provides invaluable insight into the concept of high and low case numbers in the Diversity Visa program).
Thank you.
The Basis for Scheduling
A case number is the basis for when a Diversity Visa case is to be scheduled for interview. As such, its position in a region is a major preoccupation for most applicants.
I’m therefore writing this article to provide applicants – especially those who are unaware – with a kind of estimate of what could be considered low, medium or high case number in their region, as well as when different case numbers can expect to be interviewed during the Program year.
[CLICK HERE to jump to Case Number Tables] or continue reading the article below.
Interviews in each region begin with the lowest case numbers and progress to high ones as the fiscal year goes on. This gives cases with low case number a higher chance of being interviewed than those with high ones.
Concerning the tables below, let me include the following notes:
NOTE:
1. The below are estimates intended to serve as ‘signposts’ and should be considered as such.
2. A position and a ‘likely’ time of interview have been assigned to each case number range established. This concept is not official. It is however based on the fact that low case numbers have less risk than higher ones.
3. The details shown for each case number range (which are subject to adjustment) are approximate values based on interpolations from recent years. As such, some case numbers may fall in a neighboring range in reality.
That being indicated, the following tables show – by region – low, average and high case numbers, and when cases in each range can look forward to be interviewed.
IMPORTANT: Under normal circumstances, interview notifications are sent out to applicants during the second month (5 – 10 weeks) before their interview.
It must be also be noted that the highest case numbers in each region may never be scheduled for interview as the Program year may come to an end or visas run out before scheduling reaches them.
AFRICA
| Case Number | Classification | Chances | Likely Interview Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 10000 | Low | Very High | October – January |
| 10000 – Below 20000 | Relatively Low | High | January – March |
| 20000 – Below 30000 | Average | Good | March – June |
|
30000 – Below 40000 |
Relatively High |
Fair |
June – August or when |
| 40000 & Above | High | Low | Aug. – Sept. or when AF goes current; Note: may not get interviewed |
Except:
EGYPT
| Case Number | Classification | Chances | Likely Interview Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4000 | Low | Very High | October – December |
| 4000 – Below 8000 | Relatively Low | High | January – March |
| 8000 – Below 12000 | Average | Good | March – May |
|
12000 – Below 15000 |
Relatively High |
Fair |
May – July or when |
| 15000 & Above | High | Low | Aug. – Sept. or when Egypt goes current; Note: may not get interviewed |
AMERICA, NORTH (THE BAHAMAS)
| Case Number | Classification | Chances | Likely Interview Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 5 | Low | Very High | October – January |
| 5 & 6 | Relatively Low | Very High | January – March |
| 7 & 8 | Average | High | March – June |
|
9 & 10 |
Relatively High |
Good |
June – August or when |
| Above 10 | High | Fair | Aug. – Sept. or when NA goes current; Note: may not get interviewed |
AMERICA, SOUTH and the CARIBBEAN
| Case Number | Classification | Chances | Likely Interview Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 500 | Low | Very High | October – January |
| 500 – Below 750 | Relatively Low | High | January – March |
| 750 – Below 1000 | Average | Good | April – May |
|
1000 – Below 1500 |
Relatively High |
Fair |
June – July or when |
| 1500 & Above | High | Low | Aug. – Sept. or when SA goes current; Note: may not get interviewed |
ASIA
| Case Number | Classification | Chances | Likely Interview Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 3500 | Low | Very High | October – January |
| 3500 – Below 5000 | Relatively Low | High | January – March |
| 5000 – Below 7500 | Average | Good | March – June |
|
7500 – 10000 |
Relatively High |
Fair |
June – August or when |
| Above 10000 | High | Low | Aug. – Sept. or when AS goes current; Note: may not get interviewed |
Except:
IRAN
| Case Number | Classification | Chances | Likely Interview Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 1000 | Low | Very High | October – November |
| 1000 – Below 2500 | Relatively Low | High | November – December |
| 2500 – Below 5000 | Average | Good | December – March |
|
5000 – Below 6500 |
Relatively High |
Fair |
March – June or when |
| 6500 & Above | High | Low | June – Sept. or when Iran goes current; Note: may not get interviewed |
NEPAL
| Case Number | Classification | Chances | Likely Interview Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 1000 | Low | Very High | October – November |
| 1000 – Below 2000 | Relatively Low | High | November – December |
| 2000 – Below 4000 | Average | Good | December – March |
|
4000 – Below 6000 |
Relatively High |
Fair |
March – June or when |
| Above 6000 | High | Low | June – Sept. or when Nepal goes current; Note: may not get interviewed |
EUROPE
| Case Number | Classification | Chances | Likely Interview Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 7500 | Low | Very High | October – January |
| 7500 – Below 10000 | Relatively Low | High | January – March |
| 10000 – Below 18000 | Average | Good | March – June |
|
18000 – Below 25000 |
Relatively High |
Fair |
June – August or when |
| 25000 & Above | High | Low | Aug. – Sept. or when EU goes current; Note: may not get interviewed |
OCEANIA
| Case Number | Classification | Chances | Likely Interview Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 400 | Low | Very High | October – January |
| 400 – Below 600 | Relatively Low | High | January – March |
| 600 – Below 950 | Average | Good | March – June |
|
950 – Below 1400 |
Relatively High |
Fair |
June – August or when |
| 1400 & Above | High | Low | Aug. – Sept. or when OC goes current; Note: may not get interviewed |
FINAL NOTE
As the above is intended to only serve as ‘signposts’, be sure to regularly follow the State Department’s Visa Bulletin to know the actual monthly cut-offs that will apply in your region.
SUGGESTED: For indepth explanation regarding case numbers, read this article.
Hello my case number is between EU35xxx-36xxx. Would you say I have a high or low number? What chance do I have to get interviewed? I am from Albania.
Thank you in advance!!!
1. Neither high nor low.
2. Good chances.
Hello I applied and got picked for the dv lottery 2024 in may and submitted my application in June. I am in Somalia and my case number is 2024AF5167x what are the chances I get an interview. Thank you
Your chances largely depend on your embassy of interview.
Hello and thank you for your support! please am 2024 DV winner and my case number is AF33xxx please I’m likely to be interviewed.
Yes, you have a chance.
I AM FROM GHANA AND MY CASE NUMBER IS 33XXX PLEASE DO I HAVE THE CHANCE FOR AN INTERVIEW?
Yes, you do.
Hello,
Is there any chance to know for the highest DV 2024 ASxxxxxxx case number so far?
Thanks and appreciated
Hi: You can not be sure what the highest case number is for now, but you may get an idea of its range/vicinity based on what other applicants have reported.
Hi Trodvies,
Thank you for your reply.
I am worry about my case id 34xxx. However, I heard about high case number in most of the region this year. And also heard AS52xxx from somewhere but i am not sure is it correct or not.
By the way, do you know last year 2023 highest case number for ASIA if possible?
Sorry to bother you.
Hi again, Robert:
The highest DV 2023 AS case number was 26126. But it certainly isn’t in that vicinity this year.
By the way, we have a Guidance Program for DV applicants which you may be interested in: https://diversityvisaguidance.com/
Hi Trodvies,
Thanks and appreciated for your reply and information.
You’re most welcome!
I Have case number is AS13xxx. How is my chancexof interview and when will be the projected month for interview?
1. Good chances
2. Can’t tell
Thanks for your page is so helping.i won greencard lottery 2022 my case number wasAF2023××××60817 (in kenya)i didn’t get the interviews..was my case number high?
Hi Tabitha:
Yes, your case number was high. And in addition, the Nairobi embassy performed badly – unlike most others – during the DV-2023 Program.
Hello Trodvies, my case number is 2024EU29xxx, is this a high case number? What are my chances for interview? Thank you in advance!
Hi:
1. No, it’s not.
2. It will largely depend on your embassy.
I was selected for the DV2023 from Iran and my case number is 12600. Do I get a chance to be interviewed?
Scheduling of DV 2023 interviews is only a few days from ending.
I’m from Liberia with the case number of 114*** dose I have a chance of getting interview
It will largely depend on how the embassy in Monrovia deals with DV cases when the 2024 Program kicks off.
Hi Trodvies,
My name is Nadege from Congo DR.
My Case number is 2023AF15XX.
I submitted my DS260 in Feb. 2023.
Do i stand a chance to get my interview date any moment from now?
Hi Nedege:
Sorry to say that it is very unlikely that you will be scheduled for interview.
Case number OC42××. Any possibility for interviews?
Yes, but there’s no guarantee.
My case number is 16500 from Iran, I have a chance for 2024
Yes.
Good afternoon. My case number is 24EU38XXX . Even before the announcement of the results, we moved to Portugal and, accordingly, the consulate, where we can have an interview, changed to French. Could this affect the chances of being invited for an interview? If we were in Belarus, we could have interviews in Warsaw, where there are also winners from Russia (5500), Belarus (1800) and Poland (600). There are about 8000 in total. And from France, about 600 people won and they only process 600 applications. It seems to me that this may affect the chances of being called for an interview.
The stats you are mentioning are not for the DV 2024 Program; 2024 Lottery stats have not been published.
Hi. My cn is 2023EU29XXX. I’ve got a mail from KCC where they said that my case number is now current for interview processing. What does it mean and do i have chance that the interview date will have been scheduled?
1. It means that your case has been added to your embassy queue.
2. Your interview will only be scheduled if your case gets to the front of the queue BEFORE scheduling of DV 2023 interviews ends.
Thank you very much
You’re welcome.
Case number OC15**
Thoughts? I’m being thrown with hearing there are Oceania case numbers in the 4500+ range
It’s true for DV 2024, so if that is your program, then you have a good case number.
I am about 12000 case number….is it good case number or not?
What are your region and your program year?
I’m in asia srilanka my cn 20976
Colombo performance 2nl 18709
Can I get 2nl in next few weeks
Cutoff number as21000
It’s possible, but not guaranteed.
What is the highest number for asia region in DV lottery 2024?
I don’t know yet.
I am a selected and my number is OC4000. What is likely to get interview?
Can’t say. See this article for better insight: https://mydvprogram.com/dv-2023-when-will-i-be-interviewed
Hi, I am one of the selectee of DV2024, and I believe my case number is very high AS34*** , I have already summitted my D260 but do you think that I will be interviewed ? Based on your chart and data, it is impossible. I have lost all my hope and beliefs
Please don’t lose hope! If you read the notes I included in the article, it is indicated that the data in the charts are based on interpolations from recent years. The DV 2024 case numbering system is an exception that doesn’t respect the standard set in the article. (I’m going to mention that at the beginning of the article right now).
So, it is not impossible for DV 2024. With the DV 2024 case numbering system, you may have a good chance. But whether you are interviewed or not at the end of the day will largely depend on your embassy.
Thanks a lot for your reply ! Please share the “the new numbering system” whenever you could because we all have a lot of dreams and ambitions about DV2024. I
You’re welcome!
To come up with a “numbering system”, one has to interpolate the data from a few years. As such, sharing a “new numbering system” will not be possible before the DV-2024 Program comes to an end.
Why is that? What’s the problem for embassies to interview all random winners? You have to get lucky twice? I don’t get it.
They can’t interview everyone because the visas available can not serve all of them. That’s what the DV Program is about.
That does not make any sense ! They can only select 55K people and make sure they are all interviewed, would you give hope to many people then you take all the dreams! Basically, you have to be lucky twice , first in the lottery and secondly the lottery of being selected to the interview.
The method may not be the best, but that is how the Program works.
Please, I would like to know the chances available for an interview for case number 2024AF00033###. Thank you
It depends largely on the assigned embassy.
The US embassy – Ghana.
I read they are under performing, but I hope they do will the next FY
I will be glad if you could help explain the risk and advantages available if one want’s to change the interview location to a third country due to local/ regional embassy under performing, high cs number, lack of interview dates due to backlogs.
That’s the kind of issue I address as part of my Diversity Visa Guidance Program. The Program could be of interest to you: https://diversityvisaguidance.com
My case number is2024AF00102###
From Liberia have a case number 84438
Hi,
My case Number in Asia, AS 3xxxx in DV lottery 2024. Is there any chances to get interview? If available, when will it?
Yes, good chances of being interviewed. When it will be depends on various factors, so I can’t tell when exactly.
My case number is very close to yours and I am pretty sure that none of us will be interviewed.
I AM FROM LIBERIA AND MY CASE NUMBER IS 2024AF001051XX DO I HAVE THE CHANCE FOR AN INTERVIEW?
It’s too early to say.
Hello dear respected sir;
I am a DV lottery winner from Afghanistan my case number in around 22000. The case numbers for Asis raised to 21000 for July. We have 2 months, August and September left. Is there any possibility that in these 2 remaining months, the case numbers for Asia reach to 22000 or I have no chance. I much respect and apperciate your kind anwers, thank you in adcance.
Yes, it is possible for the Asia cut-off number to reach your case number in the two remaining months.
I was selected for further processing for the DV2024. I’m an F-1 visa holder so I’ll be adjusting my status. My case number is 2024SA000032XX and based on your article, chances of being interviewed with a case number of over 1500 is low in my region. Currently, the visa bulletin cutoff is at 2740 for DV2023. Can you please explain your reasoning for the 1500 cutoff?
When the selection process affects what has been ‘normal’ case number ranges for a number of years by extending the highest case numbers, that obviously affects the classifications, chances and likely interview time.
That’s the case of DV-2023; and even more – as we are currently observing – with DV-2024. And that’s the essence of the NOTES both before and after the cut-off tables. Consider Note # 3 (before) and the final note (after).
I think I should add an additional note to clarify for those who don’t understand what the current notes mean and may have similar questions.
Thanks for the comment.
First of all many thanks for your kind responses.
I am from Iran and my case number is close to18000. Do I have the chance to get the second letter?
Thank you so much in advance.
You’re welcome!
Which program?
So does it mean that, with high case number you could be rejected even though you’ve won the dv lottery.
Not rejected, but you may not have the chance to be interviewed to be issued a visa.