Low and High Case Numbers

[Scroll down to view Case Number Tables]

The Basis for Scheduling

A case number is the basis of when a Diversity Visa case is to be scheduled for interview. As such, its position in a region is a major preoccupation for most applicants.

I’m therefore writing this article to provide applicants – especially those who are unaware – with a kind of estimate of what could be considered low, medium or high case number in their region as well as when different case numbers can expect to be interviewed during the Program year.

Interviews in each region begin with the lowest case numbers and progress to high ones as the fiscal year goes on. This gives cases with low case number a higher chance of being interviewed than those with high ones. 

Concerning the tables below, let me include the following notes:

NOTE:

1. In the current context of the Diversity Visa Program, there are a number of factors that affect when an interview will actually take place. These include the existing backlog of cases at KCC, whether processing of the case in question has been completed, the working status of the embassy concerned, etc. The below are therefore estimates intended to serve as ‘signposts’ and must not be misconstrued.

2. A position and a ‘likely’ time of interview have been assigned to each case number range established – for the purpose of categorization. This concept is not official; other Diversity Visa commentators may see and present this reality differently. It is however based on the fact that low case numbers have less risk than higher ones

3. The limits shown for each case number range, which are subject to adjustment, are approximate values based on interpolations from recent years. As such, if your case number is in the vicinity of a limit shown, its actual position and ‘likely’ time of interview may be those of the neighboring range.

That being noted, the following tables show – by region – low, medium and high case numbers and when cases in each range can look forward to be interviewed.

AFRICA

Case Number Range Classification Chances Likely to be interviewed
Below 10000 Low High 1st Quarter or Early 2nd
10000 – Below 20000 Medium-Low High 2nd Quarter
20000 – Below 40000 Medium-High Good/Fair 3rd Quarter
40000 & Above High Low 4th Quarter or when
AF goes current

Except:

EGYPT

Case Number Range Classification Chances Likely to be interviewed
Below 4000 Low High 1st Quarter
4000 – Below 10000 Medium-Low Good 2nd Quarter
10000 – Below 15000 Medium-High Fair 3rd Quarter
15000 & Above High Low 4th Quarter or when
Egypt goes current

 

AMERICA, NORTH (THE BAHAMAS)

Case Number Range Classification Chances Likely to be interviewed
Below 5 Low High 1st Quarter
5 – Below 8 Medium-Low High 2nd Quarter
8 – Below 10 Medium-High High 3rd Quarter
10 & Above High Good 4th Quarter or when
NA goes current

 

AMERICA, SOUTH and the CARIBBEAN

Case Number Range Classification Chances Likely to be interviewed
Below 600 Low High 1st Quarter
600 – Below 1200 Medium-Low High 2nd Quarter
1200 – Below 1800 Medium-High Good/Fair 3rd Quarter
1800 & Above High Low 4th Quarter or when
SA goes current

 

ASIA

Case Number Range Classification Chances Likely to be interviewed
Below 4000 Low High 1st Quarter
4000 – Below 8000 Medium-Low High 2nd Quarter
8000 – Below 15000 Medium-High Good/Fair 3rd Quarter
15000 & Above High Low 4th Quarter or when
AS goes current

 

Except:

IRAN

Case Number Range Classification Chances Likely to be interviewed
Below 2000 Low High 1st Quarter
2000 – Below 5000 Medium-Low Good 2nd Quarter
5000 – Below 6500 Medium-High Fair 3rd Quarter
6500 & Above High Low 4th Quarter or when
Iran goes current

 

NEPAL

Case Number Range Classification Chances Likely to be interviewed
Below 2500 Low High 1st Quarter
2500 – Below 4500 Medium-Low Good 2nd Quarter
4500 – Below 6000 Medium-High Fair 3rd Quarter
6000 & Above High Low 4th Quarter or when
Nepal goes current

EUROPE

Case Number Range Classification Chances Likely to be interviewed
Below 7000 Low High 1st Quarter
7000 – Below 14000 Medium-Low High 2nd Quarter
14000 – Below 24000 Medium-High Good/Fair 3rd Quarter
24000 & Above High Low 4th Quarter or when
EU goes current

 

OCEANIA

Case Number Range Classification Chances Likely to be interviewed
Below 500 Low High 1st Quarter
500 – Below 900 Medium-Low High 2nd Quarter
900 – Below 1500 Medium-High Good/Fair 3rd Quarter
1500 & Above High Low 4th Quarter or when
OC goes current

FINAL NOTE

 As the above is intended to only serve as ‘signposts’, be sure to regularly follow the State Department’s Visa Bulletin to know the actual monthly cut-offs that will apply in your region

SUGGESTED: For a deeper understanding of case numbers, see this article.

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